The Structural Advantage of Democrats in Electoral Politics

Despite two consecutive victories by George W. Bush, Democrats retain a structural advantage in electoral politics. This has not always been so. In the five elections that took place in the 1970s and 1980s, the GOP won sweeping victories with over 400 electoral votes in four of them. That changed with the 1992 election. Since then, the nation has been largely split. Bill Clinton won two elections rather easily, with over 350 electoral votes each time, although he never managed to gain more than 49% of the vote. Then, George W. Bush won consecutive elections by much narrower electoral margins, though with a hefty popular vote win in 2004. In each of these four most recent elections, 34 states (plus the District of Columbia) have been carried by one party or the other every time. The Republicans have carried 15 states with a total of 135 electoral votes, while the Democrats have carried 19 states with a total of 248 electoral votes. This is a sizable advantage for the Democrats. You have to consider these 34 states the base of the electorate that is not likely to change for the 2008 election. Among the remaining 16 states, eight of them were carried in 3 of the 4 elections by one party, and are thus near-locks. The GOP carried five of these states worth a total of 64 votes, while the Dems carried three with a total of 16 votes. That brings the party base totals to roughly 199 for the GOP and 264 for the Dems.

That leaves just 8 toss up states remaining. Given the structural superiority of the Democrats, the GOP has to be nearly perfect in winning these states. These 8 states were each carried two times by Bill Clinton, then twice by George Bush, providing him his margin of victory. Those states are: Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee and West Virginia. Of these states, four should remain safe for the Republicans. Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia and Louisiana were all carried by double digit margins by Bush and are probably safe for the. This is probably also true of Arkansas, which Bush won by nearly 10%, but Clinton carried it two times and the electoral popularity of Hillary there is an unknown quantity. So, that leaves Missouri, Nevada, and Ohio to consider.

Bush won Missouri by a healthy 7.2%, but there was an anti-gay marriage amendment on the ballot that helped his turnout. In the statewide Senate election in 2006, Democrat Claire McCaskill defeated incumbent Jim Talent, but just barely. Her 2.2% victory in the middle of a national Democratic tide is not exceptional. Plus, her 48,000 vote winning margin would have been largely wiped out if, as many assume, most of the 47,000 votes that went to the Libertarian candidate would otherwise have gone to Talent. So, Missouri is a key state to watch. Was 2004 the fluke, with the anti-gay marriage amendment, or was 2006, with the anti-incumbent tide and the strong independent challenger, a perfect storm for the Democrats? In any case, this is a state where the GOP has to sink money to find out.

Nevada and Ohio are true purple states - each went twice for Clinton and twice for Bush. Each has one Dem and one Rep senator. Each was carried by Bush by a less than 3% margin. There is a general feeling that Ohio is lost to the Republicans for the time being. The state GOP has been hit by corruption scandals, and the Republican incumbent senator was defeated easily in a statewide election in 2006. Similarly, Nevada may be becoming less purple as well. It is a fast growing state, with many if not most of the new arrivals being natural Democratic constitutents, moving in from Democratic states. Though not as tough a test as Ohio, Nevada will be a struggle for Republicans in 2008.

Of the states categorized as near locks – those that have been carried by one party 3 of the last 4 elections, there are five that appear vulnerable for a switch in 2008. Colorado has been a largely Republican state, but Bush won by less than 5% in 2004, down from his nearly 8.5% win in 2000. Colorado is experiencing the same sort of demographic change as is Nevada, with many new voters moving in from California and other Democratic states.

Florida was the closest race in the nation in 2000, with Bush winning by just 500 odd votes. He increased his margin in 2004, but at just 5.01%, it remains vulnerable. Iowa had been a reliably Democratic state, going twice for Clinton and also for Gore in 2000, but Bush squeaked out a very narrow victory by just 0.67% of the vote. Similarly, New Mexico had gone for the Democrats in three consecutive elections until Bush won another narrow win by 0.79% in 2004. New Hampshire was won by Bush in 2000 after having gone twice for Clinton. Bush might have won it again in 2004 if his opponent had not been from neighboring Massachusetts. As it happens, Kerry took the state by just a 1.37% margin.

Four of these five states are “purple” in their senatorial representation, with one senator from each party. The fifth, New Hampshire, is currently represented by two Republican senators, but freshman John Sununu won his seat in 2002 by just 10,000 votes over former governar Jeanne Shaheen and faces a tough race in 2008 to retain his seat in a rematch. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has already identified this race as one of their primary objectives in 2008, and that should boost Democratic turnout in the state. Three more of these five states will also be holding Senatorial elections in 2008. Iowa’s Tom Harkin faces a likely easy reelection bid, but the seats in Colorado and New Mexico (following popular Senator Pete Domenici’s recent announcement that he will not seek reelection) are open and will draw heavy national interest from both parties.

Among the 34 states that have gone solidly for one party over the last 4 elections, there are 5 potential candidates to watch as switches this time around. Curiously, they are all “Blue States.” The five, which all went to Kerry by margins less than 5%, are Oregon (4.16), Minnesota (3.48), Michigan (3.42), Pennsylvania (2.5) and Wisconsin - the closest race in the nation last time around with just a 0.38 margin - fewer than 12,000 votes - after Gore had carried the state by just a 0.22 margin.

Pennsylvania, although it was close in 04, can probably be scratched from the list. Statewide Republican candidates were decisively defeated in Pennslyvania in 2006. Oregon is probably too far out of reach for a campaign with limited funds. But, the three Great Lakes states of Minnesota, Michigan, and Wisconsin are defintely in play for the GOP, especially if they name popular Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty as their VP selection. Wisconsin has been the most closely contested state in the nation the last two cycles, Gore winning by a margin of just 0.22% and Kerry by just 0.38%. It is the most obvious target for the Republicans to try and switch a state from Blue to Red. Michigan is a stretch for the GOP, but might be in play if Mitt Romney wins the nomination – Romney was born in Michigan and maintains strong connections there, where his father was an executive in the automotive industry as well as governor of the state in the 1960s. Romney, former governor of Massachusetts, would also offer the party a decent chance to swing neighboring New Hampshire back into the GOP column.

Because they have more money and thus more freedom to be aggressive, the Democrats will probably also campaign hard in Virginia. Although Bush won in consecutive seasons by comfortable margins around 8%, and although Virginia has gone for the GOP candidate in 10 consecutive elections (and was even the only Southern State not to be carried by Jimmy Carter), some Dems see an opening in the state following Jim Webb's upset senatorial victory over incumbent George Allen in 2006. However, this might be fool's gold - Webb won a very tight election by less than 10,000 votes, just .39%. Still, with money to burn, this might be where the Democrats decide to spend it.

In summary, then, there are the 12 states that are crucial to any Republican chance of retaining the White House:
Missouri
Nevada
Ohio
Colorado
Florida
Iowa
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Minnesota
Michigan
Wisconsin
Virginia

As of now, I would predict that the Dems are going to pick up at least Nevada, Ohio, Colorado, Iowa, and New Mexico, for a net gain of 55 electoral votes over the 252* that Kerry won in 2004, bringing their total to 307, well above the needed 270 votes for victory. If this is the case, then the only chance for the GOP is to flip the 3 Great Lakes states and New Hampshire, which have a combined total of 40 Electoral votes, reducing the Dem gains to 17 and leaving them just short of the magic number 270. Even this would not be enough – it would result in a 269 to 269 tie, throwing the race to the House of Representatives where the Democrats will continue to hold their majority. The GOP will still have to win one of the other 8 states on the list to win the election. A strong chance for the Republicans to do so would be a ticket of Romney and Pawlenty. Their connections in the four crucial states would give the GOP a fighting chance – slim though it is - to maintain their hold on the White House. On the other hand, Giuliani’s stated intention to wage a 48 state battle (he cedes only Vermont and Massachusetts) – wasting limited funds on states where he has little or no chance - could doom the GOP to an electoral blowout, which would probably affect the important Senate and House races as well. If Giuliani thinks that electability is his trump card in the race for the GOP nomination, he needs to take a much more serious look at the electoral geography and make a case for himself in these Big 12 states.

*Kerry won states worth a total of 252 electoral votes, but he only is credited with 251 in tallies because one elector from Minnesota cast a vote for his running mate, John Edwards.